The Really Big Lie ABout Autism

The 2007 Centers for Disease Control study puts the rate of Autism in school-age children in 1992 & 1994 at 1 in 150. The number rises to an astonishing 1 in 94 in New Jersey. The experts attribute the 'new' numbers to their shrewd detection techniques. So let's look at the numbers. In 2006, roughly twenty percent of the US population was between the ages of 1-14. I'm going to halve that number to be on the safe side and call that number 'school-age'. So 10% of 300 million is 30 million children. Let's divide that by 150. That gives us 200,000 children living with autism today. Assuming those numbers are somewhat consistent which we are assured they are let's do some more math. Let's go decade by decade from 1950. I'm simply going to take 10% of the US population, divide by 150 and list the numbers below.

1950 100,883
1960 119,548
1970 135,474
1980 151,030
1990 165,806
2000 187,614
_____
860,355

So we should see close to a million persons living with autism. 'The Really Big Lie About Autism' is an interesting article on this data and the arguments that a) the rate is rising and b) it is consistent. Here's a taste of both:

a) "Dr. Stephen Goodman, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore who has studied autism statistics for the past 30 years. "The explosive increase that has been claimed is almost certainly not true."

b) "The Concord Monitor in New Hampshire reported this week that the number of autistic students had tripled since 2001. School board president David Immen said that the increase in students with autism "is not a bubble passing through; it's a wave that's coming."

I know this post is a little dated but it's my maiden post:) I look forward to joining the discussion and continuing to help children with autism.

adam